Tuesday, February 10, 2015

India @ $ 2.1 trillion economy


India @ $ 2.1 trillion economy under new GDP measure
The growth of the Indian economy is projected to accelerate to 7.4% in the current fiscal compared with 6.9% last year based on a new way of calculating gross domestic product (GDP).
At this level it is estimated to be on par with China, currently the fastest growing economy in the world.
It is also the first time that the economy is projected to be bigger than $2 trillion; India’s GDP is estimated to be $2.1 trillion in 2014-15.
The latest data shows that while agriculture, mining and trade, hotels and public spending slowed in 2014-15 compared with the previous year, key sectors such as manufacturing, construction and financial sectors grew at a faster pace than a year ago.
Economists are particularly surprised at the higher sectoral numbers for the manufacturing and financial sector reported by the new series because this is not reflected in data on factory output and bank credit.
The manufacturing sector is expected to grow at 6.8% in 2014-15 from 5.3% a year ago.
$2 trillion economy
With nominal GDP projected at Rs.126.5 trillion for 2014-15 from Rs.113.4 trillion a year ago, the size of the economy is projected at $2.1 trillion at the current level of dollar exchange rate at Rs.61.7.
At the turn of the millennium, Indian GDP was about $481 billion and by 2007, it was measured at $1.2 trillion. That means it had grown two-and-a-half times in seven years. And effectively, in a span of 14 years the Indian economy has grown more than four times.
With the latest growth number of 7.4%, however, India is tied with China as the fastest growing major economy. The International Monetary Fund had projected India to outpace China’s growth rate in 2016—India is projected to grow at 6.5% compared with 6.3% for China. However, China’s economy, at $9.5 trillion, is valued at nearly five times that of India.
The number also doesn't mean much in terms of per capita income and India will remain a lower middle-income economy. Its economy will have to grow by at least four times and its population remain at the same level for it to become an upper middle-income economy.
According to World Bank calculations, an economy is categorized at lower middle income if its per capita income falls between $1,036 to $4,085 while upper middle income countries have per capita income between $4,086 and $12,615.

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